Although Paul K2 will no doubt consider the GISTemp rising from 0.59C in July to 0.61C in August some sort of nail in the coffin of lukewarming, those comparing the trend of the multi-model mean of IPCC projections driven by the A1B SRES to the observed trends will realize that lukewarming is alive and kicking and standing next to whoever might happen to be hammering nails into a coffin lid. ENSO is current in “La NADA” and the 13-month smooth is touching the lower 1-sigma spread for multi-model means.
Other features:
- The multi-model mean trend since 1980 is outside the ±95% uncertainty intervals computed using “red correction”; thee are illustrated with mustard yellow solid and dashed lines. That means we would deem the multi-model mean inconsistent with this observation if we used red-correction (as is frequently done in climate science.)
- I hunted for the ARIMA (p,q) wiht p≤4 and q≤ that gave the largest uncertainty intervals (not the best fit) and plotted the ARIMA trend and ±95% uncertainties in green. The multi-model mean trend or 0.207 C/decade is just on the edge of the upper +95% confidence interval which is also at 0.207 C/dec.
These are 31 year trends, and the multi-model mean is rejecting. No wonder after long insisting that the trends are not inconsistent people are beginning to “explain” why the surface temperature are warming more slowly than projected.
As far as I am aware, HadCrut hasn’t yet reported. I hope to show all three surface measurement groups and two year averages when the last surface group reports their August values. Those of you who want to discuss temperatures instead of ice, now’s the time to do it!
